Democrats such as Gov. Gavin Newsom had said they would target five GOP seats, launching an intranational tit-for-tat to counter new congressional maps proposed in Texas that could net the GOP five more seats in the Lone Star State.
According to an analysis by The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia published on Monday, the state's 1st Congressional District, represented by Rep. Doug LaMalfa, would become far more Democratic leaning, swinging from -24.9 points for Harris in 2024 to what would be +12.3 points for Harris if the 2024 vote was repeated with the new map. The same would happen for the 48th District, held by 12-term incumbent Rep. Darrell Issa, whose district would go from Harris -15.3 points to Harris +3.4 points.
And the 3rd District held by Rep. Kevin Kiley would become a Harris +10 seat, the Center for Politics found, a flip from Trump +4.
The Center also found that the 41st District represented by 17-term incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert would be "essentially eliminated" geographically, and that the 22nd District, held by Rep. David Valadao, would become more competitive.
The Cook Political Report rates Kiley's current district as Likely Republican in the 2026 midterms, and rates Calvert's and Valadao's as Leaning Republican in its list of competitive races.
"I'm committed to defeating Newsom's power grab in this special election," Calvert said in a statement to ABC News. "Voters decided to give redistricting powers to the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and take it away from politicians drawing their own districts. The gerrymandered maps are exactly why voters don't trust Sacramento politicians. I will fight to keep redistricting power with our citizens."
LaMalfa, meanwhile, slammed the proposed maps for tying together geographic locations that seem to have no connection to each other.
"If you want to know what's wrong with these maps -- just take a look at them. How on earth does Modoc County on the Nevada and Oregon Border have any common interest with Marin County and the Golden Gate Bridge?" LaMalfa said in a statement. "Voters took this power from Sacramento for just this reason. This is naked politics at its worst.
LaMalfa also criticized how California's move, he said, could spark redistricting efforts in other states -- referencing GOP-run states such as Florida and Indiana. "Mid-Decade redistricting is wrong, no matter where it's being done," he wrote.
A spokesperson for Issa, Jonathan Wilcox, similarly called the effort "a pure political power grab that shouldn't pass the test of voters who already decided to keep politicians like Newsom out of reapportionment. Congressman Issa supported the initiative to create the independent commission, he believes it is the best arrangement for California, and that the state constitution is being trashed for partisan advantage."
Kiley has introduced legislation in Congress that would ban mid-decade redistricting nationwide.
"Make no mistake, I will win reelection to the House regardless of the proposed changes to my district. But I fully expect that the beautiful 3rd District will remain exactly as it is," Kiley noted. "We will defeat Newsom's sham initiative and vindicate the will of California voters."
A spokesperson for Valadao did not respond to a request for comment.
